Timing is Everything

 
Originally written Jan. 31, 2014 I’ve updated this post to reflect the reality of how time affects perspective. I’ve added new comments in blue italics surrounded by parentheses.

Well it’s back to a topic that is very important to me, finances.

Going DownAs I write these words the stock market is a bit more than an hour from opening though you’ll read these words (because I’ll finish this post) after it opens. Based on the pre-market indicators today is going to be a down day (possibly very down). So far 2014 has been a down year with the Dow dropping 4.39% or 748 points and that doesn’t include whatever is in store for today. I for one hope it continues down. (Well it didn’t continue and as you read these words the Dow is up 3.82% for the year)

Wouldn’t it have been nice to sell everything on Dec. 31, 2013, the peak, and then buy it all back whenever we hit the bottom? (That would have been Feb. 03) It would have but it’s also impossible to know when those two events will occur, eveyone knows that. They say timing is everything in life but perfect timing is impossible when it comes to stocks. Since perfect timing is impossible then what about not so perfect, or just average timing? We’ll get to that in a second.

I gave up trying to time the market very early in my investing career but there is some wiggle room. Almost as soon as this new year began, I started selling stock. Not because I’m a clairvoyent investor but because I had to rebalance my portfolio anyway and rebalancing to me doesn’t mean selling and buying at the same time. Since the year began I have sold 3.2% of all my stock holdings and moved it to cash or bonds. (I’ve continued selling as the year went on and the markets have risen) That’s not a lot in the grand scheme of things and fits with my philosophy of buy and hold. I held onto 100% of my stocks during the 2008 collapse and subsequent recession and even added to my positions which paid off very well with 2008 seeing a 16% decline but 2009 seeing a 25% increase and 2010 seeing a 17% increase all while buying on the way up.

If you have a plan you can and should stick with it and that’s exactly what I’ve done and am doing. (My plan is to buy low and sell high – duh – but I rarely sell – the little selling I’ve done is very small compared to my holdings. More importantly I’ve been saving and it’s those savings that will allow me to buy when I beleive the time is right) Also very importantly, do not make big moves. 3.2% is not a big move but, if I’m successful, it will have a big impact many years from now, and that is what planning is all about.

Will I begin buying stocks at the exact right moment, when the market hits the bottom and things begin going up again? Absolutely not! But will I buy at a lower price then I sold? Yes. Will that growth compound over many years if I continue to hold? Yes. The timing is not when to sell but when to scale back buying and when to amp up buying.

My next post will be on my technique for rebalancing my portfolio.


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