Foolish Cycle Continues

 
WhitneyThe experts are at it again. Not that they ever stop spouting off but when they change direction I think that’s a sure sign to ignore them. One such expert perpetuating this foolish cycle is Meredith Whitney.

The Difference

I’ve said it before, that if you use the gauge of who is richer, who garners more respect, and who can get on TV any time she wants then Ms. Whitney is far more qualified than I am to offer her financial advice. The difference is that I’ve been correct in my predictions and she’s been wrong though she’ll never admit it (especially to me).

What Now?

Stocks have gone up very quickly and there are various reasons for that but Ms. Whitney has been cautious about stocks – until now. CNBC states “Known more for her pessimistic take on the markets, and banks in particular, Whitney has turned in the opposite direction.” Run the other way!

Whitney says she’s “not been this…bullish…on equities in my career.” Yeah I know, but I have, and I’ve been right and she’s been wrong. I’m a lot more cautious, now, just as she seems to be jumping in with both feet.

This reminds me of another person I’ve called out for being a fool who jumps on whatever bandwagon is rolling through town, James Glassman, who wrote the book DOW 36,000 just as stocks were about to crash from their internet binge. Glassman later wrote, Safety Net, a book about how stocks were not a good investment and which favored bonds just before this amazing stock market run we’ve experienced these past few years.

Pickers

My feeling on investing has evolved over the years and at one time I thought I could time the market, predict with reasonable certainty what individual stocks would do. I was wrong. Since then I have become a passive investor (passive is such a misnomer).

It’s been said that you can pick your friends, you can pick your nose, but you can’t pick your family; I’d change that to you can’t pick the direction of the market. And yet people try. They tried with internet stocks, they tried with housing, and they’re trying again with bonds.

My Advice

You choose whether you want to listen to these so called experts but my advice is to ignore these fools and invest with a long term view. Tomorrow I’ll have a post about how my saving and investing has enabled me to be aggressive when I wanted and cautious when I needed.


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